CFC R-11
The R-11 supply through 1996 has been adequate for normal service requirements but not sufficient for stock-piling. The problems with R-11 supply, as well as R-12, will increase now that production has ceased. One help is that polyurethane foam manufacturers, the largest user of R-11, have switched to alternatives. CFC reclaim, recycle and reuse programs with about an 80 percent yield are also assisting in the orderly transfer to non-ozone depleting alternatives.
For planning purposes, a planning scenario was developed by refrigerant manufacturers, regulators, state associations and equipment manufacturers. It assumed there were about 80,000 large centrifugal and screw chillers in service, with about 70,000 using R-11. This scenario assumed a 4.5 percent annual system replacement rate, compared with a 3 percent historical rate.
Actual experience as of January 1, 1997 indicate replacement of CFC-using chillers are going slower than expected. Based on this current rate and as shown in the table below, about 53 percent of the units will need increasingly expensive CFC refrigerants on January 1, 2000. That date will be four years after the government-halted production. With more chillers requiring CFCs to remain running, the stock-piled virgin CFCs is being drawn down faster than expected since less used refrigerant is being recovered from decommissioned chillers. Owners will be more dependent on used CFCs reclaimed to ARI Standard 700.
In 1996, U.S. shipments of 9,147 large non-CFC chillers was slightly below the 1995 record high output of 9,444 chillers. However, replacement and conversion of 4,356 CFC-using chillers in the U.S. fell behind the earlier expected scenario, according to the industry's trade association, the Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute (ARI). ARI estimates about 76 percent (61,000 units) still required CFCs on January 1, 1997. The current ARI forecast of chiller conversions and replacements are shown here.
This indicates 53 percent (42,555 units) of the 80,000 chillers will still be using CFCs at the turn of the century. With retrofits slower than planned, there remains a shortfall of between 1 and 3 million pounds that will have to be obtained from the limited stock piles or orders will go unfilled. Any fewer than the current modest number of retrofits or a lower replacement rate will only make the situation worse.
